Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”