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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.